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A University of Colorado (CU) assay of the 2012 U.S. Presidential Acclamation predicts that Mitt Romney will win the acclamation in November. The archetypal acclimated for the anticipation is one that has accurately predicted all presidential elections back 1980, including George W. Bush accident the accepted vote but still acceptable the acclamation in 2000. [Details Here]

“For the aftermost eight presidential elections, this archetypal has accurately predicted the winner,” said Michael Berry, political science assistant at CU. “The abridgement has apparent some advance back Admiral
Obama took office. What charcoal to be apparent is whether voters will accede the abridgement in about or complete terms. If it’s the former, the admiral may accept acclaim for the economy’s aisle and win a additional term. In the closing case, Romney should aces up a cardinal of states Obama won in 2008.”

The anticipation archetypal uses an assay of bread-and-butter factors to actuate an aftereffect for anniversary of the 50 U.S. states. It was developed by Berry and his adolescent CU political science assistant Kenneth Bickers. Two of the factors the archetypal takes into annual accommodate accompaniment and civic unemployment numbers and changes in absolute per capita income, both of which affect Democratic and Republican candidates differently.

The abstraction has predicted that Admiral Barack Obama will alone accept 218 balloter votes, far abbreviate of the 270 bare to win the election. It additionally predicts that Romney will accept 52.9% of the accepted vote.

“The incumbency advantage enjoyed by Admiral Obama, admitting statistically significant, is not abundant abundant to account aerial ante of unemployment currently accomplished in abounding of the states.” said Bickers.

The Berry and Bickers abstraction will be appear in this month’s Political Science & Politics. An amend to their assay application added contempo bread-and-butter abstracts will be advancing in September.